xR Philosophy

Expected Runs | MLB 2026
243 games · 65 xR mismatches (26.7%)
Games
Teams
Graphs
Away xR Score xR Home
2026-04-13
Houston Astros 6.482 – 67.61Seattle Mariners
Arizona Diamondbacks 5.467 – 95.91Baltimore Orioles
Washington Nationals 3.225 – 1611.73Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs 2.557 – 137.62Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Angels 11.4010 – 1112.75New York Yankees
Miami Marlins 8.8810 – 45.07Atlanta Braves
Boston Red Sox 5.456 – 138.30Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Guardians 9.889 – 33.12St. Louis Cardinals
Texas Rangers 8.898 – 14.52Athletics
New York Mets 4.270 – 44.60Los Angeles Dodgers
2026-04-12
Miami Marlins 2.322 – 85.98Detroit Tigers
San Francisco Giants 3.312 – 63.39Baltimore Orioles
Arizona Diamondbacks 4.504 – 35.10Philadelphia Phillies
Minnesota Twins 7.038 – 23.05Toronto Blue Jays
Los Angeles Angels 7.099 – 67.13Cincinnati Reds
Athletics 4.451 – 03.04New York Mets
New York Yankees 6.954 – 52.78Tampa Bay Rays
Washington Nationals 5.798 – 66.73Milwaukee Brewers
Boston Red Sox 8.199 – 35.00St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 3.476 – 74.56Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros 3.711 – 65.04Seattle Mariners
Colorado Rockies 2.652 – 78.78San Diego Padres
Texas Rangers 4.125 – 22.75Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago White Sox 4.676 – 53.41Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Guardians 2.141 – 138.96Atlanta Braves
2026-04-11 (15)
2026-04-10 (15)
2026-04-09 (6)
2026-04-08 (15)
2026-04-07 (15)
2026-04-06 (13)
2026-04-05 (16)
2026-04-04 (15)
2026-04-03 (14)
2026-04-02 (3)
2026-04-01 (15)
2026-03-31 (14)
2026-03-30 (15)
2026-03-29 (12)
2026-03-28 (15)
2026-03-27 (8)
2026-03-26 (11)
2026-03-25 (1)
Team G xR/G xRA/G R/G RA/G xR-R/G xRA-RA/G
Arizona Diamondbacks174.075.294.184.65-0.10+0.64
Athletics164.385.064.004.56+0.38+0.50
Atlanta Braves175.534.205.533.18+0.00+1.02
Baltimore Orioles163.984.134.314.12-0.34+0.00
Boston Red Sox164.515.224.254.69+0.26+0.54
Chicago Cubs164.344.844.564.31-0.22+0.53
Chicago White Sox163.464.423.064.94+0.40-0.52
Cincinnati Reds164.065.473.384.38+0.69+1.10
Cleveland Guardians175.064.493.944.12+1.12+0.37
Colorado Rockies164.055.494.064.44-0.01+1.05
Detroit Tigers164.944.084.383.75+0.57+0.33
Houston Astros175.365.185.596.29-0.23-1.12
Kansas City Royals164.184.733.384.06+0.81+0.67
Los Angeles Angels174.834.794.885.18-0.06-0.38
Los Angeles Dodgers166.394.245.943.50+0.45+0.74
Miami Marlins174.053.774.714.35-0.66-0.59
Milwaukee Brewers154.914.205.334.27-0.43-0.06
Minnesota Twins175.114.695.414.53-0.30+0.16
New York Mets174.654.353.654.06+1.00+0.29
New York Yankees165.173.314.753.38+0.42-0.07
Philadelphia Phillies164.523.704.124.75+0.39-1.05
Pittsburgh Pirates165.024.195.123.94-0.11+0.25
San Diego Padres165.734.034.623.75+1.10+0.28
San Francisco Giants163.804.763.194.50+0.61+0.26
Seattle Mariners174.943.684.063.41+0.88+0.26
St. Louis Cardinals165.006.564.315.56+0.69+1.00
Tampa Bay Rays153.785.784.675.33-0.88+0.44
Texas Rangers164.524.254.193.50+0.33+0.75
Toronto Blue Jays154.605.133.805.47+0.80-0.34
Washington Nationals165.486.705.886.50-0.39+0.20
Last updated: Apr 14, 2026 07:56 PM ET
xR vs Actual Runs
3.54.04.55.05.56.06.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.0 xR/G R/G
xRA vs Actual Runs Allowed
3.54.04.55.05.56.06.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.5 xRA/G RA/G
xR vs xRA
3.54.04.55.05.56.06.53.54.04.55.05.56.06.5 xR/G xRA/G

First two charts: dashed line = xR matches actual. Third chart: bottom-right = best (high xR, low xRA).

Last updated: Apr 14, 2026 07:56 PM ET